The Crystal Ball Prediction for San Diego Real Estate

Wouldn’t it be great to get a look into the crystal ball of San Diego, California real estate and see what’s in store for house prices and the real estate market overall

Well… I’m sure I’m not the first to tell you there is no such thing as a crystal ball for real estate. What I am here to tell you is that the closest thing to a crystal ball I’ve seen lately is our San Diego County Tax Assessor, Gregory Smith. Gregory has been our real estate Assessor/Recorder/Clerk for the past 25 years and spoke today about our current San Diego real estate market.  The following comments are my notes from his presentation:

YES, California and San Diego are in a recession.

We are at or near the bottom of the market currently. Prices should level off in 2008. One good sign is that there were over 3000 recorded documents at the County Recorder’s Office last month – the first time it’s been over 3000 in quite some time.

What we need for a recovery concerning San Diego real estate comes down to 3 things:

1. Interest rates need to get back to the Mid-5% range. People seem to think that below 6% is the magic number for interest rates to be considered good.

2. A full implementation of FHA needs to be embraced. Jumbos have to come back in line with conforming loan rates.

3. Foreclosure inventory needs to go down. Downtown has roughly 2000 units for sale with 2500 more coming online this year. The beachareas have the least affected by the foreclosure market. By the end of the year 2008 most of the foreclosures will be off the market.

The County Assessor’s Office is getting about 300-400 submissions for Proposition 8 a day. The cut off day is the end of this month. It’s great for people who have a lower property value in comparision with their appraised value.

2008 is the bottom of the market. Survive 2008 and 2009 and 2010 will be better for the real estate industry.

This is the best time to buy property. Even if you have to sell your property now and buy again in San Diego it will be better to buy now than wait. You’ll save on property taxes in the long run.

Did you read that last line?

The very wise and always to the point San Diego County Tax Assessor, Gregory Smith just said that NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY REAL ESTATE. He’s advising us to save on taxes in the long run by purchasing a move-up property now rather than waiting.

As usual, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this matter and the preceding comments.

Gregory Smith has a Proposition for YOU…

Who says our declining real estate market isn’t benefiting homeowners? Hey, my property dropped 10’s of thousands already and it’s possible yours has too. It’s an odd down market, kind of like it was an odd up market. Anyhow, here’s what you NEED TO KNOW about the benefits of going down in value for San Diego Real Estate.

Our effervescent County Assessor, Gregory Smith, has a proposition for you, Proposition 8 to be exact. Between now and May 30th, 2008 you can apply for a Review of Assessment. What’s a Review of Assessment you ask? Here’s the skinny straight from the government:

“Under State law, Proposition 8, a temporary reduction in assessed value can be made when themarket value falls below the assessed value. Once reduced, the Assessor’s Office must then annually review the value of the property. When the property values increase, the assessed value will also be increased but no higher than the original assessed value (plus the annual CPI increase, not to exceed 2%, as required by Proposition 13).

Property owners who believe their property’s market value has fallen below its assessed valueshould file an Application for Review of Assessment with the Assessor’s Office as soon as possible but no later than May 30, 2008. They should provide their opinion of value andsupporting documentation, such as comparable sales, current listings, or a recent appraisal.For apartments or other income-producing property, income and expense information should also be provided.”

You’ll need a solid Comparable Market Analysis of similar current listings, pending listings and what’s sold over the past 6 months. I would be happy to help you with this. I’ve got a PDF package ready to email or snail-mail out if you are interested. The PDF contains the Application and Instructions. It is REALLY simple to do this and mostly applies to properties purchased in the past few years.

Application for Assessment Appeal Online

Give me a call if you need help.

Travis Houston

858.232.2008

Travis [@] WestoftheFive [dot] com