This is a re-post of an e-newsletter from Duane Gomer, the real estate license school guy.
TODAY’S OFFERING
A – It Ain’t As Bad As It Looks
B – My Rebuttal About Broker License Myths
C – Our New Pay As You Go Broker Courses
IT AIN’T AS BAD AS IT LOOKS
Everyone has become extremely aware that the Real Estate Market has capsized and many properties are upside-down, underwater, or have the dreaded situation of “Loans in Excess of Basis.” Part of this problem is the doom and gloom stories from the media. Remember, the “mainline media” moves slowly. Most members have never been through a normal market and they are stock market oriented so they are pessimistic.
We have to stay upbeat. Your first step is to stop listening to downbeat news and download better music to your IPOD. Many of you generation Y’ers won’t know the following music but check it out.
My new real estate mantra is “I Will Survive” by Gloria Gaynor, with its first words, “First I was afraid, I was petrified.” Hey, we will all survive.
Next, go to the Pointer Sisters, “I’m So Excited” that states we’re about to lose control and we think we like it. Hey, they’re still Short Sales (lenders don’t want the properties, they have enough), REO’s (Real Estate Opportunities), Auctions, Trustee Sales and even in California about 95% of the population is employed.
Our music finishes with Sinatra’s “That’s Life” saying whenever we find ourselves flat on our face, we pick ourselves up and get back in the race.
How about an optimistic look at the media output. The media trails behind in statistics and in time. Sales are up in many areas. The information that is released in the media is based on closed sales. I have always believed that the real measure of a market is not when escrows are closing but when people are deciding to agree to sell and buy and are signing contracts. With so many short sales and REO sales escrow times are becoming longer and longer. In Orange County, Steve Thomas of ReMax has been noting that the amount of opened escrows has been increasing when compared to prior year sales. These increases will be reported in the media in 60-90 days. Keep an eye on this trend.
Now, let’s consider the beloved statistic of median price. All the media outlets have been saying two things:
Number one – Low priced properties are selling faster and in higher percentages than in the past years.
Number two – The median price is dropping. Hello, Economic Statistics Class 101 says if more lower priced properties are selling, the median price will be artificially forced much lower. Also, Mode and Mean, the other methods to evaluate data won’t help evaluate real estate.
Someday, I hope that the “Economists-Pundits-Experts” who have been so wrong for the past years on the upturn would develop a statistic that compares this year’s price of apples to last year’s price of apples. This is probably my Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, or Peter Pan optimistic hope and will never be realized even with today’s computers and MLS information.
Posted by Joy Houston 
westofthefive.wordpress.com 