Home prices have come down. The 1.7 percent national price decline in August (from a year ago) was the first price decline since April 1995 when prices declined 0.1 percent for one short month. Prices also declined previously to that in both 1992 and 1993, but again for only a single month. The only sustained price decline was a mere two straight months in 1990. There have been no other nationwide price declines since NAR began tracking the data in 1968.
Brighter Days Ahead
As for the national picture, the elevated inventory will be worked off over the next two quarters. Wages are rising at better than 4 percent and jobs continue to be created – not robustly – but nonetheless respectably with 1.7 million net new payroll jobs in the past 12 months. With home prices falling, the demand will inevitably pick up. The low point will be the fourth quarter of this year. Sales will then steadily climb and with it will come strengthening home prices. In summary, the housing slump is nearly over.
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